On paper, Man City should walk this game but they showed against Bournemouth that they can be vulnerable away from home and Watford can be a tough side to beat, especially in front of their home fans.
Additionally, it must be noted that City did play away from home midweek.
Watford stats over last 20 home games
Home wins 7
Home Losses 10
8 of the last 20 Watford home games have been over 2.5
6 of the last 20 Watford home games both teams have scored.
Watford have scored first in 10 of their last 20 home games
Watford have conceded first in 9 of their last 20 home games
Watford have scored in 11 of their last 20 home games
Man City stats over last 20 away games
Away wins 13
Away Losses 1
13 of the last 20 Man City away games have been over 2.5
10 of the last 20 Man City away games both teams have scored.
Man City have scored first in 13 of their last 20 away games
Man City have conceded first in 5 of their last 20 away games
Man City have scored in 18 of their last 20 away games
Man City should win this game but it will not be easy, they do have to overcome their midweek travels and the fact that they are playing away from the Etihad.
Expect Watford to be defensive but as they showed against Liverpool, when they have to they can score and more than once against the bigger teams.
Therefore the best value bet in this game is